2 COVID Vaccines Approved, End to Pandemic in Sight??

[bjcheung77]

dfrecore's keyboard having issues? or, your computer browser I meant, it's doing it again, your post is blank for some reason!

Anyways, since I'm off topic, here's a survey in regards to the ELT industry expectations for pandemic recovery.

Link: https://monitor.icef.com/2020/11/new-sur...-recovery/

TLDR: In short, we're going to be MONTHS away from recovery, End of Story... <doh! I saw that coming!>

[Merlin]

TLDR: In short, we're going to be MONTHS away from recovery, End of Story... <doh! I saw that coming!>

Even with these new vaccines ramping up production for release once they get their EUA, we're still looking at summer 2021 or so before the US will have enough vaccine supply to innoculate everyone who wants the vaccine. Assuming the mRNA vaccines are more durable than natural immunity (which initial testing is now suggesting) we still need like 80-90% of the people in the US to become immune to "end the pandemic" via herd immunity. So, in theory, if everyone in the US (or even just 80-90%) takes the vaccine, the US should be able to end the pandemic before the end of 2021. That said, it doesn't look like 80-90% of people in the US will take the vaccine when offered, so it may actually take longer than 2021 before we see an end in the US.

Of course, that doesn't account for the other nations. The richer nations will be fine and could have this cured before the end of 2021 like the US. However, the poorer nations are probably looking at more than a year, maybe even multiple years before they can treat everyone.

Given how easy it is to travel globally, the longer there are still people in the world with the virus, there will always the chance that it could spread again to infect anyone who didn't take the vaccine or those 5-10% whose system doesn't develop the proper immune response to the virus after taking the vaccine.

So, when they say months, I imagine they are only talking about the US and other first-world nations. We're probably talking years before this will be wiped out globally. Unless the pharma companies, rich nations, or a few philanthropic billionaires step up to help cover the cost of purchasing and distributing the vaccine to people in those poorer nations. Which isn't unreasonable considering it is in everyone's best interest to wipe it out ASAP.

[LevelUP]

So, when they say months, I imagine they are only talking about the US and other first-world nations. We're probably talking years before this will be wiped out globally. Unless the pharma companies, rich nations, or a few philanthropic billionaires step up to help cover the cost of purchasing and distributing the vaccine to people in those poorer nations. Which isn't unreasonable considering it is in everyone's best interest to wipe it out ASAP.

The U.S. has already spent over $5 trillion on this virus.  Spending an extra $100 billion to make sure everyone gets a vaccine around the world would end up saving us money.

It's amazing how little is spent actually fighting the virus.  Only $10 billion was spent on operation Warp Speed which seems like will end up saving us trillions of dollars.  Kind of like your house is on fire and you don't want to spend the few pennies on the water to put out the fire.

It took the U.S. four years to storm the beaches of Normandy after Hitler invaded France.  This isn't just about defeating the virus, it is about fighting tyranny globally that the COVID pandemic created the opportunity for.

"Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else," Winston Churchill.

[ss20ts]

And still everybody is ok with rich athletes playing football without masks.

If health was so important and avoiding the spread was so pivotal, why all these rich people (Congress, Football players, and so on) allowed to congregate, some without masks?

Is football so important? Are the rich athletes immune?
Or are they above the law because they are rich?

The athletes are being tested all the time. Some sports have the players under quarantine. There are no fans at the sporting event. Don't like it, don't watch. I don't worry about what they are doing. I mind my own business,.

So it is ok if some are allowed to not follow the law?

While rest of us are on lockdown?

I already don't watch it much, but it is all ridiculous.

I agree with masks and social distancing, I just don't get the extreme measures and the fact some rich groups are allowed not to follow the same rules.

Where are you getting that the sports teams aren't following the law? Every state has different laws. Even in different county there's different government mandates. 

Everywhere isn't on lockdown.

[Seagull]

And still everybody is ok with rich athletes playing football without masks.

If health was so important and avoiding the spread was so pivotal, why all these rich people (Congress, Football players, and so on) allowed to congregate, some without masks?

Is football so important? Are the rich athletes immune?
Or are they above the law because they are rich?

The athletes are being tested all the time. Some sports have the players under quarantine. There are no fans at the sporting event. Don't like it, don't watch. I don't worry about what they are doing. I mind my own business,.

So it is ok if some are allowed to not follow the law?

While rest of us are on lockdown?

I already don't watch it much, but it is all ridiculous.

I agree with masks and social distancing, I just don't get the extreme measures and the fact some rich groups are allowed not to follow the same rules.

Where are you getting that the sports teams aren't following the law? Every state has different laws. Even in different county there's different government mandates. 

Everywhere isn't on lockdown.

So that means that any large group can gather maskless in a place with no lockdowns as long as they get tested and it is ok?

Then why aren't regular citizens informed of this?

And why people cannot hold small parties on private property or weddings in churches?

[ss20ts]

And still everybody is ok with rich athletes playing football without masks.

If health was so important and avoiding the spread was so pivotal, why all these rich people (Congress, Football players, and so on) allowed to congregate, some without masks?

Is football so important? Are the rich athletes immune?
Or are they above the law because they are rich?

The athletes are being tested all the time. Some sports have the players under quarantine. There are no fans at the sporting event. Don't like it, don't watch. I don't worry about what they are doing. I mind my own business,.

So it is ok if some are allowed to not follow the law?

While rest of us are on lockdown?

I already don't watch it much, but it is all ridiculous.

I agree with masks and social distancing, I just don't get the extreme measures and the fact some rich groups are allowed not to follow the same rules.

Where are you getting that the sports teams aren't following the law? Every state has different laws. Even in different county there's different government mandates. 

Everywhere isn't on lockdown.

So that means that any large group can gather maskless in a place with no lockdowns as long as they get tested and it is ok?

Then why aren't regular citizens informed of this?

And why people cannot hold small parties on private property or weddings in churches?

Depending where you're located, you CAN hold small parties on private property and weddings in churches. It's all about location. The NBA quarantined the players. They weren't allowed to leave their hotel except for games and they were transported. The NFL has hit several teams with big fines for bending/breaking the rules. 

Every state does not have these restrictions you keep harping on about. Many states are pretty open.

[eriehiker]

I will get this vaccine pretty quickly because that's just how I roll. The only way to the other side of this is mass vaccination. I ask the students in my middle school/high school classes if they have ever had the chicken pox and no one raises their hand. Pretty much everyone had the chicken pox when I was a kid. The chances of having an adverse reaction to these vaccines after many stages of trial will be minimal and certainly worth the risk given that it is for the greater good. If you die from it, you will probably go straight to heaven.

Anyway, Covid-19 has impacted my Thanksgiving because 92 students/adults at my school were given quarantine notification yesterday. I am in the 92, so no Thanksgiving with my 82 year old dad who lives alone. I was thinking about buying some fireworks and shooting them off in my backyard.

[Seagull]

The athletes are being tested all the time. Some sports have the players under quarantine. There are no fans at the sporting event. Don't like it, don't watch. I don't worry about what they are doing. I mind my own business,.

So it is ok if some are allowed to not follow the law?

While rest of us are on lockdown?

I already don't watch it much, but it is all ridiculous.

I agree with masks and social distancing, I just don't get the extreme measures and the fact some rich groups are allowed not to follow the same rules.

Where are you getting that the sports teams aren't following the law? Every state has different laws. Even in different county there's different government mandates. 

Everywhere isn't on lockdown.

So that means that any large group can gather maskless in a place with no lockdowns as long as they get tested and it is ok?

Then why aren't regular citizens informed of this?

And why people cannot hold small parties on private property or weddings in churches?

Depending where you're located, you CAN hold small parties on private property and weddings in churches. It's all about location. The NBA quarantined the players. They weren't allowed to leave their hotel except for games and they were transported. The NFL has hit several teams with big fines for bending/breaking the rules. 

Every state does not have these restrictions you keep harping on about. Many states are pretty open.

First I am not harping but you surely are being rude.

---

I will get this vaccine pretty quickly because that's just how I roll.  The only way to the other side of this is mass vaccination.  I ask the students in my middle school/high school classes if they have ever had the chicken pox and no one raises their hand.  Pretty much everyone had the chicken pox when I was a kid.  The chances of having an adverse reaction to these vaccines after many stages of trial will be minimal and certainly worth the risk given that it is for the greater good.  If you die from it, you will probably go straight to heaven.

Anyway, Covid-19 has impacted my Thanksgiving because 92 students/adults at my school were given quarantine notification yesterday.  I am in the 92, so no Thanksgiving with my 82 year old dad who lives alone.  I was thinking about buying some fireworks and shooting them off in my backyard.

So if your test is negative you still cannot spend Thanksgiving with your dad?

That is sad.

And at the same time people like the governor of California can and will defy these rules.

I think people should just spend the holiday with their loved ones. if they know they were not exposed and tested negative.

[Merlin]

So if your test is negative you still cannot spend Thanksgiving with your dad?

That is sad.

I agree, that is sad, but it is the responsible thing to do.

The problem is you need to wait at least 5-7 days (7 is recommended) after any potential exposure before getting a diagnostic PCR or antigen test. Testing before that has a higher probability of false negatives as the virus takes a while to incubate and reproduce enough to be detectable. On average this takes 5-6 days post-exposure, but it can take as long as 14 days in some cases. This is also why the 14-day self-quarantine is recommended. An infected individual may be contagious a day or two before they develop symptoms––though some people don't develop noticeable symptoms at all despite being contagious.

It is usually recommended to get a PCR test after 7 days, and if negative, get a second one after 14 days. If both are negative then people are cleared to leave quarantine and return to work or whatnot.

In @eriehiker's case, testing before 7 days after exposure is likely to provide a high possibility of false negatives. That likely means the first test will fall on or around Thanksgiving, and the results from that could take a day or two (antigen tests take under an hour, but are less accurate). A second test would still be required 14 days after exposure to confirm a negative result. However, it is still possible to be contagious after 3-4 days, even if there are no symptoms. So, staying in quarantine while awaiting test results is prudent.

[Seagull]

So if your test is negative you still cannot spend Thanksgiving with your dad?

That is sad.

I agree, that is sad, but it is the responsible thing to do.

The problem is you need to wait at least 5-7 days (7 is recommended) after any potential exposure before getting a diagnostic PCR or antigen test. Testing before that has a higher probability of false negatives as the virus takes a while to incubate and reproduce enough to be detectable. On average this takes 5-6 days post-exposure, but it can take as long as 14 days in some cases. This is also why the 14-day self-quarantine is recommended. An infected individual may be contagious a day or two before they develop symptoms––though some people don't develop noticeable symptoms at all despite being contagious.

It is usually recommended to get a PCR test after 7 days, and if negative, get a second one after 14 days. If both are negative then people are cleared to leave quarantine and return to work or whatnot.

In @eriehiker's case, testing before 7 days after exposure is likely to provide a high possibility of false negatives. That likely means the first test will fall on or around Thanksgiving, and the results from that could take a day or two (antigen tests take under an hour, but are less accurate). A second test would still be required 14 days after exposure to confirm a negative result. However, it is still possible to be contagious after 3-4 days, even if there are no symptoms. So, staying in quarantine while awaiting test results is prudent.

Agree,

Wished it was like this but some places people work at, they cannot afford to have employees stay home and so if test is neg they are allowed to go to work.

Plus some tests are not accurate, also Elon Musk tried 4 with 2 different results, 2 positive, 2 negative.

It would be ideal if rules were based solely on science but instead they are based on geo economics factors and so the states that are allowed free travel from one place to another are also the most affected (NY, NJ, etc) instead on basing the travel on numbers and science.