Cal State Online Fall 2020

[ARhead]

I think this will cause a depression that will take decades to recover from.

Other than the death, THIS is the worst outcome from COVID. Regular non-financial folks thinking that the virus was the CAUSE of the financial meltdown that will occur. That was already baked into the cake. Business cycles occur in a capitalist system, no matter how much central banks and governments try to eliminate them and turn capital markets into a political utility. Covid only hastens the end of the cycle. So when it all goes down instead of blaming central banks for causing incredible bubbles and encouraging liquidity to flow into the least economically feasible parts of the economy leading to an incredibly damaging end to what could have been a tame end of the business cycle. Instead people just blame the virus. And so we can't point fingers at the true cause of the bubbles, and they'll just PAPER it over do it all over again. Oh well, I have the road map to trade that outcome, as it's what they just did and have been doing for 30 years. Sadly, most people are gonna get smoked.

[dfrecore]

I think this will cause a depression that will take decades to recover from.

Other than the death, THIS is the worst outcome from COVID. Regular non-financial folks thinking that the virus was the CAUSE of the financial meltdown that will occur. That was already baked into the cake. Business cycles occur in a capitalist system, no matter how much central banks and governments try to eliminate them and turn capital markets into a political utility. Covid only hastens the end of the cycle. So when it all goes down instead of blaming central banks for causing incredible bubbles and encouraging liquidity to flow into the least economically feasible parts of the economy leading to an incredibly damaging end to what could have been a tame end of the business cycle. Instead people just blame the virus. And so we can't point fingers at the true cause of the bubbles, and they'll just PAPER it over do it all over again. Oh well, I have the road map to trade that outcome, as it's what they just did and have been doing for 30 years. Sadly, most people are gonna get smoked.

Obviously there are cycles.  But Covid was something that changed the economy overnight.  We've never gone from 3% unemployment to 20% (or whatever it is) in 2 months before.  It's total insanity.  Covid caused that.

You know what else didn't help?  Listening only to doctors/epidemiologists w/o taking other things into account.  We should have had a well-rounded group of folks advising the President, instead of just doctors who will always err on the side of caution.  No one was talking about the other damage that might occur as a result of shutting down our country.  But, as usual, government is all about not looking at the unintended consequences of their actions (hence people who won't go back to work because they're getting more in unemployment than they would get if they worked - now who would have seen that coming? Oh yeah, EVERYONE except the dopes who thought of it.).

[ARhead]

But, as usual, government is all about not looking at the unintended consequences of their actions (hence people who won't go back to work because they're getting more in unemployment than they would get if they worked - now who would have seen that coming? Oh yeah, EVERYONE except the dopes who thought of it.).

Is that the big news in Breitbart these days? Or did I miss Rush this morning?....It's funny how well people can get played. All the tax cut trillions and bailout money going to the ultra-rich and corporations that only needed bailouts because of years of stock buybacks payed for by accumulating corporate debt (hence needing the bailouts) solely to enrich executives at the expense of gutting the companies.....Not to mention the worst wealth inequality in your history. After all that, you feel that where the economic focus should be is on some guy in Arkansas making $6 an hour at a slaughterhouse with rampant covid spread who doesn't want to infect his family. THAT'S WHERE THE FOCUS SHOULD BE?.......GET REAL.
Seeing as this is a medical issue those trained in that profession are probably first and foremost the ones who should be listened to. If the bare minimums had been implemented in the beginning (having enough masks and wearing masks being mandatory for the entire population, and test test test) the situation would have played out completely different. Or even just not denying the virus was real instead of saying it was a democratic hoax, might have been a start. Most of Asia is a prime example, EVERYONE wore masks from the very beginning, therefor, the outcome was far better.

When a sizable percentage of a population is comprised of utterly brain-dead yokels and religious fundamentalists screaming "MAH FREEDOM" over the safety and needs of the larger population, things are not going to get better. I fully support their freedom to infect themselves if we could quarantine these people somewhere, but unfortunately we can't. Even your freakin president won't wear a mask, I'm not sure why, maybe just to spite those with a few brain cells working in tandem.
"well-rounded group of folks advising the President".......Apples don't fall far from the tree.


Second wave incoming.

[natshar]

I think this will cause a depression that will take decades to recover from.

Other than the death, THIS is the worst outcome from COVID. Regular non-financial folks thinking that the virus was the CAUSE of the financial meltdown that will occur. That was already baked into the cake. Business cycles occur in a capitalist system, no matter how much central banks and governments try to eliminate them and turn capital markets into a political utility. Covid only hastens the end of the cycle. So when it all goes down instead of blaming central banks for causing incredible bubbles and encouraging liquidity to flow into the least economically feasible parts of the economy leading to an incredibly damaging end to what could have been a tame end of the business cycle. Instead people just blame the virus. And so we can't point fingers at the true cause of the bubbles, and they'll just PAPER it over do it all over again. Oh well, I have the road map to trade that outcome, as it's what they just did and have been doing for 30 years. Sadly, most people are gonna get smoked.

Obviously there are cycles.  But Covid was something that changed the economy overnight.  We've never gone from 3% unemployment to 20% (or whatever it is) in 2 months before.  It's total insanity.  Covid caused that.

You know what else didn't help?  Listening only to doctors/epidemiologists w/o taking other things into account.  We should have had a well-rounded group of folks advising the President, instead of just doctors who will always err on the side of caution.  No one was talking about the other damage that might occur as a result of shutting down our country.  But, as usual, government is all about not looking at the unintended consequences of their actions (hence people who won't go back to work because they're getting more in unemployment than they would get if they worked - now who would have seen that coming? Oh yeah, EVERYONE except the dopes who thought of it.).

You know the thing is a lot of small businesses have super creative ways to minimize contact. I got a sub at a sub shop you ordered over the phone they had a shelf for pickup outside the door and they taped your receipt to the bag, I didn't see a single employee and didn't enter the restaurant. Where I lived they mandated a lot of places to close now some of them are re-opening now, but I don't know if they had to close in the first place. If small businesses (like mom and pop shops) can think of creative ideas to keep the business going SAFELY. Like curbside pickup, phone in orders, online orders, one person at time, other ideas etc. I don't see why everything had to close if there was a way to do it safely. This would make it so the unemployment rate wouldn't be as high because more places could remain open while still being safe.

Also, the amount of money you get for unemployment is kind of ridiculous. I get enough to equal about $20/hr for 40/hrs a week. I know some states pay even more and if you had a higher paying job you get even more. And to get that I provided no income verification, no work history, nothing and I don't even have to be looking for a job. I heard a story on the news about this restaurant that did curbside, limited menu and was super safe and everything, but couldn't find anyone to work, despite advertising hiring. He said it was because people got paid more to do nothing than to work for him.

So there could have been things to make the unemployment rate not as high as it is and make the consequences not as bad while still maintaining the same safety.

But I am not an expert so course I could wrong on all of this. I have taken numerous college business courses, have family own small businesses, and am making more in unemployment then I was before this. But, I am not saying I know everything (as a lot of people on social media seem to claim these days). I am simply stating my opinion.

[videogamesrock]

Cali has been a failed state for a while.

California has the largest economy in the United States & 5th largest on earth (larger than the UK).. I don't think that constitutes a failed state.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/putting-a...countries/

Yes they do have the 5th largest economy but it is not due to high taxation, the welfare state, nor is it regulation. California is blessed by having large access to trade from the Pacific Ocean. It is not a business friendly state and its policies encourage those who have a mobile business to leave the state.

I recently had a debate with someone who arrogantly was telling me how poor people are in 3rd world states such as West Virginia and Alabama and how they are so much poorer than those living in CA. So we looked at the average wage in WV and CA. Almost $15 an hour in WV and almost $20 an hour in CA before tax. We then looked at the average home price in each state. CA 578k WV 107k. We then divided both states housing cost by the avg hourly wage. The person living in CA has to work 28,900 hours to pay off their house while the WV resident only has to work 7,133. In fact using the same amount of hours that person residing in WV could own 4 homes before CA could own 1. Conclusion, people who live in those poor red states actually accumulate wealth 4 times faster than people living in blue high tax, high welfare, high regulatory states.


Sent from my typewriter.

[ARhead]

In Canada the Employment insurance maximum or the emergency unemployment program they made for covid both pay about $357 USD a week (Canadian dollar is bad ATM), no matter who your are or what your regular salary is, and that's taxable. That's a general ballpark number as I receive neither. It's very low but if one owns a million dollar condo and they have no emergency savings, they are up shit creek, but you should never find yourself in that situation here anyway. Everyone has healthcare here so that can't bankrupt you and so you can't pity dummies that want to live above their means and go broke by their own hand.

[natshar]

Cali has been a failed state for a while.

California has the largest economy in the United States & 5th largest on earth (larger than the UK).. I don't think that constitutes a failed state.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/putting-a...countries/

Yes they do have the 5th largest economy but it is not due to high taxation, the welfare state, nor is it regulation.  California is blessed by having large access to trade from the Pacific Ocean. It is not a business friendly state and its policies encourage those who have a mobile business to leave the state.

I recently had a debate with someone who arrogantly was telling me how poor people are in 3rd world states such as West Virginia and Alabama and how they are so much poorer than those living in CA. So we looked at the average wage in WV and CA. Almost $15 an hour in WV and almost $20 an hour in CA before tax.  We then looked at the average home price in each state. CA 578k WV 107k.  We then divided both states housing cost by the avg hourly wage. The person living in CA has to work 28,900 hours to pay off their house while the WV resident only has to work 7,133. In fact using the same amount of hours that person residing in WV could own 4 homes before CA could own 1.  Conclusion, people who live in those poor red states actually accumulate wealth 4 times faster than people living in blue high tax, high welfare, high regulatory states.  


Sent from my typewriter.

I have a family member that lived in SF and she paid over $1k a month for a single room apartment in the worst part of town and that was considered a bargain. She said you could be making six figures in SF and still be considered poor because everything is so expense.

This might be off-topic, but I find the real estate kind of interesting as far as price across the country go. I know someone from Nebraska and they paid less than 100k for a nice 4 bedroom house, nothing wrong with it. I couldn't believe a house that nice would cost so little. Meanwhile, some of my family is in real estate and Cali and 100k would buy you a cardboard box. That same 4 bedroom house might be a million dollars in LA. But the middle of nowhere Nebraska vs middle of Los Angeles. You know what they say when it comes to real estate ... location, location, location.

[Life Long Learning]

Population Shrinks In California
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/05/...ous-state/
 
 
When I was young Cali was the state to move to.  Today it’s the state to move FROM.  Everyone I know still in Cali wants to leave.  These are all upper-middle-class folks.  In my office, we all refuse to move there for a promotion.

[videogamesrock]

In Canada the Employment insurance maximum or the emergency unemployment program they made for covid both pay about $357 USD a week (Canadian dollar is bad ATM), no matter who your are or what your regular salary is, and that's taxable. That's a general ballpark number as I receive neither. It's very low but if one owns a million dollar condo and they have no emergency savings, they are up shit creek, but you should never find yourself in that situation here anyway. Everyone has healthcare here so that can't bankrupt you and so you can't pity dummies that want to live above their means and go broke by their own hand.

I would rather risk BK than pay the enormous amount Canadians pay for everything else including the high tax rates you folks pay for rationed insurance.

Option 1 higher taxes. Can’t pay go directly to jail.

Option 2 be irresponsible, don’t buy insurance, go to court for an hour and have all debts discharged.

America, the last place of some freedom of choice.


Sent from my typewriter.

---

Cali has been a failed state for a while.

California has the largest economy in the United States & 5th largest on earth (larger than the UK).. I don't think that constitutes a failed state.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/putting-a...countries/

Yes they do have the 5th largest economy but it is not due to high taxation, the welfare state, nor is it regulation.  California is blessed by having large access to trade from the Pacific Ocean. It is not a business friendly state and its policies encourage those who have a mobile business to leave the state.

I recently had a debate with someone who arrogantly was telling me how poor people are in 3rd world states such as West Virginia and Alabama and how they are so much poorer than those living in CA. So we looked at the average wage in WV and CA. Almost $15 an hour in WV and almost $20 an hour in CA before tax.  We then looked at the average home price in each state. CA 578k WV 107k.  We then divided both states housing cost by the avg hourly wage. The person living in CA has to work 28,900 hours to pay off their house while the WV resident only has to work 7,133. In fact using the same amount of hours that person residing in WV could own 4 homes before CA could own 1.  Conclusion, people who live in those poor red states actually accumulate wealth 4 times faster than people living in blue high tax, high welfare, high regulatory states.  


Sent from my typewriter.

I have a family member that lived in SF and she paid over $1k a month for a single room apartment in the worst part of town and that was considered a bargain. She said you could be making six figures in SF and still be considered poor because everything is so expense.

This might be off-topic, but I find the real estate kind of interesting as far as price across the country go. I know someone from Nebraska and they paid less than 100k for a nice 4 bedroom house, nothing wrong with it. I couldn't believe a house that nice would cost so little. Meanwhile, some of my family is in real estate and Cali and 100k would buy you a cardboard box. That same 4 bedroom house might be a million dollars in LA. But the middle of nowhere Nebraska vs middle of Los Angeles. You know what they say when it comes to real estate ... location, location, location.

So I found another correlation when it comes to housing. States that have high taxes and rent control have a higher cost of shelter. This is because the increase in taxes is passed back onto the consumer through housing, energy, and food. So when California announces an increase in tax, you cost of housing will reflect that and you will pay not only from your paycheck but also through rent increase for the landlords tax debt.


Sent from my typewriter.

[LongRoad]

I think this will cause a depression that will take decades to recover from.

Other than the death, THIS is the worst outcome from COVID. Regular non-financial folks thinking that the virus was the CAUSE of the financial meltdown that will occur. That was already baked into the cake. Business cycles occur in a capitalist system, no matter how much central banks and governments try to eliminate them and turn capital markets into a political utility. Covid only hastens the end of the cycle. So when it all goes down instead of blaming central banks for causing incredible bubbles and encouraging liquidity to flow into the least economically feasible parts of the economy leading to an incredibly damaging end to what could have been a tame end of the business cycle. Instead people just blame the virus. And so we can't point fingers at the true cause of the bubbles, and they'll just PAPER it over do it all over again. Oh well, I have the road map to trade that outcome, as it's what they just did and have been doing for 30 years. Sadly, most people are gonna get smoked.

Obviously there are cycles.  But Covid was something that changed the economy overnight.  We've never gone from 3% unemployment to 20% (or whatever it is) in 2 months before.  It's total insanity.  Covid caused that.

You know what else didn't help?  Listening only to doctors/epidemiologists w/o taking other things into account.  We should have had a well-rounded group of folks advising the President, instead of just doctors who will always err on the side of caution.  No one was talking about the other damage that might occur as a result of shutting down our country.  But, as usual, government is all about not looking at the unintended consequences of their actions (hence people who won't go back to work because they're getting more in unemployment than they would get if they worked - now who would have seen that coming? Oh yeah, EVERYONE except the dopes who thought of it.).

If the President only listened to doctors/epidemiologists without taking other things into account, that's his mistake. As our president was very focused on the economy, I have to say he was actually a bit late out of the gate listening to doctors/epidemiologists. That played a big part with the situation today. In addition, I do not believe he is a good manager. His management style is autocratic, and he doesn't listen to what he doesn't want to hear.

---

Cali has been a failed state for a while.

California has the largest economy in the United States & 5th largest on earth (larger than the UK).. I don't think that constitutes a failed state.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/putting-a...countries/

Yes they do have the 5th largest economy but it is not due to high taxation, the welfare state, nor is it regulation.  California is blessed by having large access to trade from the Pacific Ocean. It is not a business friendly state and its policies encourage those who have a mobile business to leave the state.

I recently had a debate with someone who arrogantly was telling me how poor people are in 3rd world states such as West Virginia and Alabama and how they are so much poorer than those living in CA. So we looked at the average wage in WV and CA. Almost $15 an hour in WV and almost $20 an hour in CA before tax.  We then looked at the average home price in each state. CA 578k WV 107k.  We then divided both states housing cost by the avg hourly wage. The person living in CA has to work 28,900 hours to pay off their house while the WV resident only has to work 7,133. In fact using the same amount of hours that person residing in WV could own 4 homes before CA could own 1.  Conclusion, people who live in those poor red states actually accumulate wealth 4 times faster than people living in blue high tax, high welfare, high regulatory states.  


Sent from my typewriter.

I have a family member that lived in SF and she paid over $1k a month for a single room apartment in the worst part of town and that was considered a bargain. She said you could be making six figures in SF and still be considered poor because everything is so expense.

This might be off-topic, but I find the real estate kind of interesting as far as price across the country go. I know someone from Nebraska and they paid less than 100k for a nice 4 bedroom house, nothing wrong with it. I couldn't believe a house that nice would cost so little. Meanwhile, some of my family is in real estate and Cali and 100k would buy you a cardboard box. That same 4 bedroom house might be a million dollars in LA. But the middle of nowhere Nebraska vs middle of Los Angeles. You know what they say when it comes to real estate ... location, location, location.

It's all about demand. Many people want to live in areas where the population is more heterogeneous, there are museums, more opportunities etc. The demand is less for, say, living in the state with the only museum on the fur trading industry.