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+--- Thread: Cal State Online Fall 2020 (/Thread-Cal-State-Online-Fall-2020)
Cal State Online Fall 2020 - natshar - 05-12-2020
Cal State Schools are leaning towards online in Fall 2020. Also, a bunch of other California Universities and Community Colleges in California are considering online as well. I've been keeping up on this and it seems the overwhelming majority of schools in the US are planning for in-person courses. But California seems to be the exception to that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/us/cal-state-online-classes.html
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - dfrecore - 05-13-2020
(05-12-2020, 10:39 PM)natshar Wrote: Cal State Schools are leaning towards online in Fall 2020. Also, a bunch of other California Universities and Community Colleges in California are considering online as well. I've been keeping up on this and it seems the overwhelming majority of schools in the US are planning for in-person courses. But California seems to be the exception to that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/us/cal-state-online-classes.html
Well, unfortunately, this state is run by morons. We'll be leaving when our youngest graduates HS in 2 years.
Just to give you some perspective: we have 40 million in population here, and 2700 deaths. Not a single county has been inundated with cases - most hospitals haven't even seen a single case. The death rate is 0.00675%
We have 58 counties, 57 of which have between 0-225 deaths; 43 counties have less than 20; 19 counties have 0. Only LA county has a lot, and they have 1600 deaths out of a population of more than 10 million people - so 59% of all of the deaths in the whole state are in a single county. Even the counties directly surrounding LA county have maybe dozens or a couple of hundred max. So if you remove LA county from the mix, then the death rate for the rest of the state is 0.00367%
All of that to say that Gov Gavin Newsom is drunk on power and making terrible decisions because of it. And this is just one of many.
Sorry, rant over.
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - Merlin - 05-13-2020
(05-12-2020, 10:39 PM)natshar Wrote: Cal State Schools are leaning towards online in Fall 2020. Also, a bunch of other California Universities and Community Colleges in California are considering online as well. I've been keeping up on this and it seems the overwhelming majority of schools in the US are planning for in-person courses. But California seems to be the exception to that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/us/cal-state-online-classes.html
That is because all the evidence points to it taking at least another 6-12 months before things will be close to getting back to normal unless by some miracle we manage to find a vaccine or antiviral that is proven to work. So until then, or until we have the ability to provide proper testing, quarantine for infected, and contact tracing we're going to be dealing with some degree of restrictions for a while. The schools here see the writing on the wall and if they want to stay in business, supporting an online curriculum seems prudent. I don't know why more schools aren't doing the same. Even if things turn around more quickly than expected, having the option to do online classes just expands the capabilities for the schools to accept more students from more diverse walks of life in the future.
As for the rest... I don't see what the alternatives are. Reopening too much too soon just means infections will start surging and more people will die than need to. Sheltering has only slowed the spread of the virus, not contained or eliminated it. The places that started isolating themselves later ended up with far more problems, especially in the larger metro areas.
I don't agree with everything Newsom and California's medical officials have done, but at least to me, it feels like lives are being saved. I think that it is a good thing that the hospitals aren't all being overwhelmed... that proves that isolation is working. Otherwise, everywhere would be like New York or Italy. Newsom has indicated that California is preparing to relax restrictions soon, but that also assumes everyone does their part to reduce contact and exposure. If not, it is going to take even longer to get through this.
I find it interesting to see how much of a politically charged argument this has become. I have friends and family who are healthcare workers and are losing their minds dealing with the stress and grief caused by this disease. While I hate that I've been stuck in my house for like 8 weeks now, I would prefer dealing with that than see more people die or suffer long-term organ or nervous system damage because of it. There are several people in my immediate family at high-risk, so it is particularly sensitive to me.
In any case, I'm glad to see that the Cal State schools are being forward-thinking about this whole thing. Hopefully, other schools will see the light and follow suit.
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - natshar - 05-13-2020
I've heard most other schools are PLANNING for in person so obviously if the virus changes they make a change and go online. There is a website that lists schools and there decisions and over 85% last time I checked are go for in person.
I could be wrong but I don't think any school has made a 100% official announcement about their fate yet. Most colleges fiscal year starts July 1st. We will hear a lot official announcements around then. And even then if there is a surge of cases, I can picture colleges changing everything to be online a week or two before school starts.
If schools do go in person there will be changes. One school talked about converting large ballrooms and lecture halls into regular classrooms for social distancing. Dorm arrangements will be modified maybe spaced out. Large events may be canceled or scaled back. I don't think any Universities will go back exactly how they were before.
As for California I think it is weird that considering the population they don't have a lot of cases. And I agree from what I've heard the governor there seems a mess. But at least California is pretty safe maybe that has to do with his policies, I can't say. I've heard parts of California are on lock down until July!
We have to open up schools and such at some point but no matter when we do people will die and there will be a spike in cases. But I guess the question is how big will that spike be? And will that spike be significantly smaller if we wait longer? and how much longer is the safest time? No one really knows for sure the exact safest timeline. The virus has a mind of its own.
If most or all colleges go online the effects could determental to our education system. Many colleges would go out of business. So many colleges are in huge financial trouble now as it is. Community colleges might cancel programs such as hvac, welding, plumbing, etc.The American degree would loose some global significance as we see less international students. Schools might have to riase their prices while cutting majors, and resources. In my opinion if they can do safely colleges should open up. Obviously safety is key if somehow corona spikes a ton then yes they should go online. But in the end some students will personally choose to do online classes or drop out no matter what the school does.
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - Merlin - 05-13-2020
(05-13-2020, 08:29 AM)natshar Wrote: I've heard most other schools are PLANNING for in person so obviously if the virus changes they make a change and go online. There is a website that lists schools and there decisions and over 85% last time I checked are go for in person.
I could be wrong but I don't think any school has made a 100% official announcement about their fate yet. Most colleges fiscal year starts July 1st. We will hear a lot official announcements around then. And even then if there is a surge of cases, I can picture colleges changing everything to be online a week or two before school starts.
If schools do go in person there will be changes. One school talked about converting large ballrooms and lecture halls into regular classrooms for social distancing. Dorm arrangements will be modified maybe spaced out. Large events may be canceled or scaled back. I don't think any Universities will go back exactly how they were before.
As long as the schools are at least thinking about how to deal with this in a safe and sane manner, I'm happy. I think hybrid online is probably the best option, but I agree that if they don't have some contingency in place, many schools are going to be forced to close.
(05-13-2020, 08:29 AM)natshar Wrote: As for California I think it is weird that considering the population they don't have a lot of cases. And I agree from what I've heard the governor there seems a mess. But at least California is pretty safe maybe that has to do with his policies, I can't say. I've heard parts of California are on lock down until July!
The governor is doing a difficult job in a difficult time so I can't fault him too much since our incidence numbers are so low now as a result. But yeah, California is under lockdown until things are ready to reopen safely, and will be reopening in a phased approach that is based on data and will result in the least loss in life. Most states are doing something similar. If you look at the data, this means we're going to probably be under some level of restriction through the end of 2020 and maybe longer depending on how vaccine trials go. Hopefully, we'll start to see at least some semblance of normalcy in the next month or two, just modified by increased physical distancing and mask use in public. The sooner California can ramp up testing, the sooner it can reopen.
(05-13-2020, 08:29 AM)natshar Wrote: We have to open up schools and such at some point but no matter when we do people will die and there will be a spike in cases. But I guess the question is how big will that spike be? And will that spike be significantly smaller if we wait longer? and how much longer is the safest time? No one really knows for sure the exact safest timeline. The virus has a mind of its own.
Actually, we do know. There are some very detailed epidemiological models out there that show exactly what to expect based on different scenarios. They are being updated as we learn more about the virus, but we already know enough to build models. That is, we know the R0 number and mortality factor and we have data from prior outbreaks. Together that gives a pretty clear picture of what can be expected. The only thing we don't know is how people will behave, which is why there are so many different outcome scenarios.
(05-13-2020, 08:29 AM)natshar Wrote: If most or all colleges go online the effects could determental to our education system. Many colleges would go out of business. So many colleges are in huge financial trouble now as it is. Community colleges might cancel programs such as hvac, welding, plumbing, etc.The American degree would loose some global significance as we see less international students. Schools might have to riase their prices while cutting majors, and resources. In my opinion if they can do safely colleges should open up. Obviously safety is key if somehow corona spikes a ton then yes they should go online. But in the end some students will personally choose to do online classes or drop out no matter what the school does.
This isn't something that is restricted to American schools, but I agree that this virus is likely going to reduce the number of on-campus international students given travel restrictions and distancing measures. That is where hybrid and online classes come into play. If done correctly, these programs could actually increase the number of foreign applicants while providing the same level of quality. Yes, this could have a large effect on any programs that require a lot of hands-on training, including trades-related courses (HVAC, welding, plumbing, etc.), medicine/nursing, and art courses (particularly things like physical art--sculpture, etc.). It seems like those hurdles could be managed by expanding space requirements as mentioned above. That, or by increasing the number of classes while reducing the individual class sizes to allow greater physical distancing.
Either way, this is going to change higher education one way or another as colleges adapt or go out of business.
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - natshar - 05-13-2020
I guess I'm saying we can't definitely say how many deaths or spike will occur after a certain period of time because of peoples behavior. Like maybe if we open schools tomorrow (not saying we would) no one would go back to campus becausethey wouldn't feel safe. So if that happens the predictions that said f we open tomorrow there would be a lot of cases would be wrong. Just an example not saying that would happen. Of what if the longer we wait maybe there would be a lot of people would be on campus and it would be unsafe to wait longer. Not saying that would happen, but who knows. It is just something we can't predict with 100% certainity because no one knows how people would act. And this could very from city to city and university to university. At least from I've heard everything is weird and not everything makes sense. Like places where people didn't social distance some have high cases and some have low cases.
And I don't live in California but I do have family there. I can't so much about the situation there other than that is strict. I can't say whether that is good or bad I was merely stating I heard it was strict and on lock down until July. Also I still think it is interesting with the amount of people there the cases seems low.
I 100% know this will have a huge impact on higher ed. My school is cutting huge chunk of their budget. The budget cuts alone will have an impact..
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - dfrecore - 05-13-2020
The number of people who will be more affected by the shutdown than the actual disease is steadily growing. The hospitals that will close, the doctors that can't practice, the medical services that can't be done (biopsies, PET scans, lumpectomies, etc) just as a start. This is a case of the cure being worse than the disease. We could get herd immunity from this, and more of us be safe, instead of shutting down the economy tying to keep everyone safe (which is NOT possible anyway, but I'll trade my safety for freedom thank you very much).
We are seriously considering moving to a state that is opening up just to get away from this nanny state. It's ridiculous.
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - davewill - 05-13-2020
(05-13-2020, 07:46 PM)dfrecore Wrote: We are seriously considering moving to a state that is opening up just to get away from this nanny state. It's ridiculous.
Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - Merlin - 05-13-2020
(05-13-2020, 07:46 PM)dfrecore Wrote: We could get herd immunity from this, and more of us be safe, instead of shutting down the economy tying to keep everyone safe (which is NOT possible anyway, but I'll trade my safety for freedom thank you very much).
There is little evidence to suggest that herd immunity is a reasonable option with this virus. The few places that have tried it ended up backpedaling after their death rates skyrocketed.
David Dowdy at The Department of Epidemiology of Johns Hopkins University Wrote:To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time. Reference.
Sure, I'd like to see the businesses open back up. My livelihood depends on them to do so. But trading half a million lives to open things up a bit faster seems like an unfair trade IMO. Especially given it won't speed things up that much.
RE: Cal State Online Fall 2020 - dfrecore - 05-14-2020
(05-13-2020, 11:27 PM)Merlin Wrote:(05-13-2020, 07:46 PM)dfrecore Wrote: We could get herd immunity from this, and more of us be safe, instead of shutting down the economy tying to keep everyone safe (which is NOT possible anyway, but I'll trade my safety for freedom thank you very much).
There is little evidence to suggest that herd immunity is a reasonable option with this virus. The few places that have tried it ended up backpedaling after their death rates skyrocketed.
David Dowdy at The Department of Epidemiology of Johns Hopkins University Wrote:To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time. Reference.
Sure, I'd like to see the businesses open back up. My livelihood depends on them to do so. But trading half a million lives to open things up a bit faster seems like an unfair trade IMO. Especially given it won't speed things up that much.
We are trading lives for lives. It's not like lives won't be lost because of this whole lockdown. Many, MANY lives will be lost over time because of this, in ways you can't even see yet. The repercussions will be unimaginable. Not to mention the amount of debt we're accruing - trillions of dollars, amounts that will affect my children for the rest of their lives, and my future grandchildren's lives someday. I think this will cause a depression that will take decades to recover from. I hope I'm wrong, but I think this will turn out to be an unmitigated disaster that will change our country for the worse.