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Hey everyone, just working my way through ALEKS Statistics and stumbled across the craziest
question I've ever seen. I laughed my behind off and figured everyone could use some humor
this Monday morning...
Law of total probabilities
"Archie must travel to a foreign country where a deadly strain of flu has ravaged the population.
Already, 24% of the population has succumbed to the flu and died. There is a vaccine, but because
the flu is extremely contagious, it spreads quite rapidly, and to date only 8 out of every 10 people
have been vaccinated. Thirty-two percent of those who are not vaccinated die from the flu. Archie
has just enough time to be vaccinated before he leaves. What is the probability that Archie will succumb
to the flu and die while he is away? Round your answer to two decimal places."
Anyone else ever run across any noteworthy exam questions? Feel free to share.
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haha that is morbid, did Archie make it?
a country boy can survive
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05-21-2012, 10:45 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2012, 10:47 AM by Lyanne.)
First of all, Archie is a fool.
Second, what class is this for? (Nevermind but still...) Because if it's intermediate algebra I might as well ask...
Third, how does one go about solving this? It seems to me that without the total population, I can't work out an answer.
And the person who made up that question should really get some therapy!
Lyanne
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Intermediate Algebra
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Well let's see here....
26% of population dead already. (74% still living)
32% of the population that was not vaccinated died. (which means 78% not vaccinated lived)
Archie IS getting vaccinated. If we presume the vax has better odds than not the pool of not vaxed, his odds of catching the flu AND dying should be less than 20% by my ballpark estimating. I'd place his odds of catching it but not dying at less than 30%.
Which sounds like favorable odds except historicly that epidemic of tragic proportions. The black plague(s) of the middle ages wiped out 1/3 of the world population. On a personal scale, those odds would mean a very good chance of my personal household having 3-4 members die in less than one season. And should the plague return just a viciously in another season? Well historically entire villages and small town were left nearly empty.
So I concur that Archie is a fool.
I'd be interested to know how close my math put me? Math is my worst subject.
M.
Mom of 11
Graduated 6, still home educating 5
Credits from CC classes:
eng 1113 freshman comp 1
eng comp 2
pos 1113 american fed gov't (political sci.)
spa 1103 spanish 1
bio 2123 human ecology
his 1493 american history civil war era - present
phi 1113 intro to philosophy
soc 1113 intro to sociology
total credits 24 hours
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Am I the only one that thinks the answer is 0. The problem clearly states that Archie was vaccinated. Since there is no statement to the contrary I assume the vaccine works and Archie will not get the flu.
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hilarious
Even though that is funny, I'm still not looking forward to STATs.
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brothert69 Wrote:Am I the only one that thinks the answer is 0. The problem clearly states that Archie was vaccinated. Since there is no statement to the contrary I assume the vaccine works and Archie will not get the flu.
Hmmm. Could be, but that would be the best vaccine ever created. To date none are 100% effective for every individual. That's why mass population vaccination is used. Otherwise, it would be just as effective to only vaccinate individuals deemed a higher risk.
Stats would drive me a little batty. A bazillion variables.... I wonder if it is like engineering? You know, "assume it's a sphere...." LOL
M.
Mom of 11
Graduated 6, still home educating 5
Credits from CC classes:
eng 1113 freshman comp 1
eng comp 2
pos 1113 american fed gov't (political sci.)
spa 1103 spanish 1
bio 2123 human ecology
his 1493 american history civil war era - present
phi 1113 intro to philosophy
soc 1113 intro to sociology
total credits 24 hours
gpa 3.12
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Poor Archie. I'm about to start stats on Aleks. Actually I just tried to log on and the website was giving me issues so I came here instead. I knocked out precal and intermediate algebra but I have felt incredibly unmotivated to do statistics. I took a 'math for the liberal arts' class about two years ago that was heavy on statistics. Managed to forget most everything besides the fact I hated it.
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Poor Archie. I am pretty sure he has a 22% chance of dying, lol.
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