Statistics... my nemesis

[studyingcindy]

I've successfully passed 9 clep/dantes test. I know kind of what to expect and I've scoured the post for anything with the word statistics in it. I'm having a really hard time studying for this one. Just when I think I've got it, I take a practice test and bomb it. I have the Idiots Guide, The Dummies Workbook, a BAII Plus calculator, InstaCert, and a statistics textbook. It just doesn't to stick. I'm scheduled to take this test next Saturday (the written version) and I'm so afraid of failure. What makes it really hard, is I work about 28 hours a week, I'm a mom of three kids, and I'm taking two on-line (7 week) classes. I HAVE to pass this test. I read my book, and I'll be like "what did I just read?" I guess I'm just venting and wondering how prepared most of you felt before you took it. I've studied on and off for almost a month. Oh, and I've watched the Annenburg Videos (some). I've decided to skip over sample statistics and confidence intervals, because I'm not getting it. I have 5 more test to go plus 8 classes, and I'm done! I'm in two of the 8 classes right now. If I can pass the last 5 test, I'll be done by August! This is what I face.. Stats (Sat 1/19), Adv Comp (Competancy Exam on 1/26/08), Finance (2/16/08), Macroecon and Business Law (3/13ish). I think I can pass the last two... not sure sure about the first three though. I'm not very good at math, and the subjects bore me (not the econ doesn't). The advanced composition one is where I have 3 hours to write an argumentive essay. It has to be apa formatted. I'm not very good at writing papers either But, I've got to try. I'm just going to say a big prayer before I take these and hope God will carry me through. Because I just feel like I can't do it. Sorrry to be a downer. I'm just scared and overwhelmed.

[larry7crys]

Don't get discouraged. I studied long and hard for statistics and never seemed to stick either. Sooner or later, it will though. Keep trying hard and make sure you know some of the equations or at least who to solve them. Good Luck!

[gcalvin]

What kinds of questions are you getting wrong on the practice exams? Maybe we can discuss some specifics right here in this forum and maybe make something click.

I used Statistics Demystified along with the Annenberg videos, and that was enough to get me an A on the ECE exam. I hate to recommend yet another book, but who knows? Maybe a different perspective will help it to sink in. You can check out the first chapter at books.google.com.

Try posting one or two specific questions here and see if we can help make it clearer for you.

-Gary-

[studyhard]

I've not taken that exam but I do have a couple comments on the "it's not sticking" part.

That happens to me too.

It's annoying.

Grrrr!!!!

But! Here are two things I've learned.

1. A lot of times the greatest confusion is right before light begins to dawn. You read and study and get all this new information but you don't know HOW to process it all or make it make sense. That's the worst part--when loose facts are running random around your mind and then disappearing. But after awhile I've noticed that a fact or two will really sink in. And then another one will sink in, building off of that. And then another...and another....until I finally have a fairly reasonable grip on the subject and I'm at least not tearing my hair out in despair. So don't give up....that lightbulb should be coming soon!

2. If you can, try to de-stress about it. Stress messes with your body's chemical balance and it can actually, by messing with your cortisol and stuff, cause your mind to erase things. You know how you get a mental block under pressure? That is literally because of the physical impact of stress.

So, what I would do is try to make things as easy as possible on yourself. Before you study, eat a healthy protein-rich snack. Drink a big glass of water. Put on some quiet soothing music in the background. Don't even THINK about how you have to pass this class and you're so frustrated! Just imagine you have all the time in the world and you're just there to learn a little bit right then. This can actually help you think clearer.

I'm working on the Rise and Fall of the USSR right now. I have to read a great big thick book and for awhile I tried assigning myself a certain number of pages per day. I got so stressed thinking about how I wasn't reading fast enough and how I'd probably have to read extra the next day and I'd probably flunk.....and I couldn't concentrate at ALL. So I finally decided, hey, I probably won't finish this book completely. So I'm just here to read as much as I can in the few minutes I have here and there. No big. The result was that I read much faster and retained a lot better.

It sounds like you are really knocking yourself out to prepare for this, so I really wouldn't fret too much about the test. Stressing about the test just makes your brain erase things, remember? hilarious So you're not going to think about that anymore! You're just....y'know....studying all that stuff for a lark. And isn't it fun?

Hang in there!

[Chuckers]

I had a tough time studying for it as well, but it wasn't as bad as I expected. I was sure I was going to click the score and see that I failed my first test, but I passed in the 60's. You have to remember that these tests are curved, and I think this one has one heck of a curve. Good luck.

Chuck

[studyingcindy]

Chuckers, I couldn't imagine taking the on-line test for stats. As much as I want to know right now if I passed (meaning when I take the test), I can't imagine a time limit on this monster. Thank God my college still offers the paper version.

As far as what I'm stuck on, it's a little bit of everything. Just when I think I've got something down pat, I'll go back and review and mess it up again. Probability confused me because sometimes you add, and sometimes you multiply. From what I gather, if the word and is used, it's addition. And if or is used, it's multiplication. It really messes me up how different books use different formulas or explain things differently. Sometimes, in the same book, I swear they contradict themselves. The main book I'm reading is the Idiots Guide, and it drives me nuts when the book has a mistake. And there are a lot of them.
I was like this with Microeconomics too. I ended up studying for 6 months for it. It was like 2 months on and off, then three months off, then one month on. If finally clicked. But, I don't have that long for this one. I need to pass it before... well, actually May. But I've been studying it and want to get it done so I can move on to another test. I was lucky and my college was nice enough to let me take Operations Managment without the preq, stats. I told them I was going to take the test on January 5. Which I was, but things happen. Anyway, I NEED to pass my Advanced Comp and the Finance before March 3. And if I take the paper finance, it'll be before then that I absolutely MUST know if I passed them because of how long it takes to get them back. I do have a lot of stressors. OK, for instance, I have a 4 year old, a 12 year old who has ADD, plus a 13 to be 14 year old who is a typical mouthy teen. Plus, I have ADD (hence, why nothing is sticking). I have my house up for sale. I have strep throat right now, all of my kids have been sick with it within the last two weeks (5 trips to doctors offices..), my job is stressful, my husband is not very supportive of the whole school thing (he's jealous of the time it takes away from him I think) and I'm taking these two 7 week on-line classes... one of which I will have to write a 15 page paper in 6 weeks for. OH! AND I'm having two surgeries coming up in the next two months. I have compartment syndrome. So, I'm having the facia surrounding the muscle cut. One leg on Jan 30 and one on Feb 27. I'm acutally looking foward to the down time so I can study.... so sad that I need surgery to get some rest. Anyway.. prayers would be much appreciated. I wish I could learn through osmosis.:o

[cookderosa]

Because I just feel like I can't do it. Sorrry to be a downer. I'm just scared and overwhelmed.[/QUOTE]
>>

Ok, Here's a light-hearted story to help you get going. When I started chef school way back when, we were given a text book that was essentially about 2000 soup recipes. :eek: It was horrible. Our instructor told us that we would be required to prepare any of them at any time throughout the class (14 days) and to be ready. Ok, so I was 18 years old and had never even made one soup- so I figured I was probably going to fail or this chef was just trying to scare us.....

The first day we made one soup that I found very very difficult. The next day again, and each day the same thing. It was all new to me, all confusing, and all hard- unrelated. The first week was terrible in every way.

Well, as it turns out, there are very specific methods for making soups- standard things you do every time. In the end, there are only 5 soups. Every soup in this whole wide world is a variation of on of the five. With only slight changes, a soup changes names- but it is still really the same; No matter the ingredients.... so, once you learn the 5 types, you are only learning slight variations of the same thing. So, guess what, after I learned the basics I could in fact prepare all 2000 upon request.

20 years later, I can say with certainty to my students that you can't learn any of the 2000 if you don't learn the first 5. If you (like the home cook) use a recipe without knowing a method, you have not learned anything- and you will have only learned one soup...and you will need a recipe each time. Chefs learn methods, home cooks learn recipes. See the difference? You must learn the basics- the bases of what you are trying to understand. It might be 100% new now, but once you "get" that, all new things will be easier because you won't have to think about the basics.

So....keep going, you are still learning your base soups.

[gcalvin]

Cindy,

First, on the specific area of probabilities: sometimes you can help yourself on questions in this area by taking a step back mentally and trying to absorb the "big picture". You mentioned that it's difficult to formulate a rule about adding or multiplying, and trying to key on "and" or "or" in the question. Instead of approaching it that way, try to see the big picture and consider whether a condition is "more likely" or "less likely" than another, and your intuition will guide you correctly.

For example:

You have 100 marbles in a bag. There are 35 blue, 45 red and 20 yellow marbles. Now you pull a marble out at random. What's the probability that it's green? Exactly 0 -- there aren't any green marbles in the bag, right? What's the probability that it's red or yellow or blue? Exactly 1, because those are the three colors in the bag. But we didn't key on "or", we just considered the big picture. What's the probability that it's red? That's .45 -- still clear, right? What's the probability that it's not red? Okay, that's a little tougher, but think of the big picture, take a deep breath, and ask a couple of intermediate questions. Is the answer going to be higher or lower than .45? In other words, is "not red" more likely or less likely than "red"? Maybe by looking at the big picture you can even visualize that "not red" is "a little more than half". In the end, whether you figure out that "not red" is the same as 1 - P(red) = 1 - .45 = .55, or that "not red" is the same as "blue or yellow" = .35 + .20 = .55, you'll come up with the right answer.

Now to make it a little bit harder. You pull out two marbles from the bag. What is the probability that they are both red? Okay, you already know that the probability of the first one being red is .45, and the probability that it's not red is .55, right? So the probability of both being red -- is it higher or lower than .45? In other words, is it more or less likely? Well, it can't be more likely, can it? You had to have the first one be red in order for both to be red. So your answer has to be less than .45, right? (By the way, that may already be enough to choose your correct answer from the choices available.)

Now your next temptation will be to say that the probability of two red marbles is .45 * .45 = .2025. And that can trip you up, because it might even be one of the options on the exam. The trick here is to remember that the probability on that second marble is not quite the same as the first -- it's not 45/100 but 44/99. You understand why, right? So hopefully now you've arrived at 45/100 * 44/99 = .20, the correct answer. A similar approach can help you with lots of other combinations. The important thing is to relax and visualize, rather than try to memorize formulas and rules.

I hope that helped at least a little, and didn't make things even more confusing.

Finally, since you brought up prayer and faith, you can trust that God will bring you through this trial as He has brought you through all the others before now. Try to see things in those terms -- believe that the knowledge is already there from the studying you've done, and trust that it will lead you down the right path. Don't try to force the answers to come, but rather let them come. You know the difference in feeling, attitude and approach, because you have felt it in other subject areas. When you look at a problem, resist the urge to say "oh no! this is one of those probability questions that always give me trouble" and say instead "I have been through enough of these that the answer will come to me if I let it." Then close your eyes and try to visualize as I described above. Maybe even pray over it. Then allow the gifts that God has given you manifest themselves and trust in their strength.

-Gary-

[barbara2bba]

I have been having difficulty with probability as well. I'm a very "visual" person. I found some "GREAT" videos to watch on youtube.com and there are video clips of probabilities on there that are very, very helpful. You might want to give it a try. You could put in the key words statistics, or math probabilities, etc.

I did this for a college math test I need to take next week and found some of the videos extremely helpful. I also found an awesome teacher for word problems as well.

ps....your life sounds like mine! I have 5 kids, (11, 9, 7, 4, 4) and very similar home environment with very little support.

I found that by taking a practice test I went from very few right to over half right on the petersons test section of probabilities. So it helped alot!

[studyingcindy]

Thank you all for your support, examples, and suggestions. I really appreciate it. I'll have to look in to those videos on You Tube. I also didn't even think (gcalvin.. it helped) about Petersons for College Math's probability section! Thank you for bringing that up. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you Barbara on your math test. Sounds like both of us are testing next week.

Cookerosa, your soup analogy... it right away made me think about the movie Ratatoulli. I don't know if you've seen it, but part of it is about a chef, and soup... cute movie. I know I need to focus on the basics. I think that's what I'm going to do. The only problem is that some of the stuff builds off of the stuff I don't want to study.