What does college look like in 10...20 years?

[cardiacclep]

This forum is pretty hip to alternative education and price conscious. What do you all think college will look like in a decade or two? Cheaper.....more/less relevant......certificates more important than degrees? I feel higher ed is hitting some kind of turning point right now but curious on your predictions.

[LevelUP]

There's a prediction that 1/2 of all colleges will close or merge in the decade.

This is due to high fixed costs and lack of economies of scale. 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn...xt-decade/

I think there will be a shift towards practical skills-based education versus theory.

[ss20ts]

We'll see many colleges close. Many have been struggling financially for years. I don't see the cost going down. I do see more CBE programs because they won't cost colleges anywhere near what butts in the seats programs cost. Online degrees will become the norm and there will be fewer butts in the seats programs.

[bjcheung77]

Good question!  I agree on a few things that have been mentioned...
1) Merger of institutions and closure of smaller ones who have a small endowment.
2) More online competency based degrees, applied practical skills-based education.
3) Focus on STEAM - innovation, objective learning, and industry relevant material.

4) Traditional programs will remain largely the same at more conservative institutions, however, they should bring in online programs or blended ones.  Most of these institutions don't really "need" online as they have enough students already, these are the Ivy League and Top 50 up to Top 100 institutions with butt-in-seat degree offerings.

5) Early entry into degree programs as more students are aware of AP, CLEP, Dual Enrollment, and other alternative credit such as the challenge credit exams available at each institution.  This will be accelerated due to more homeschooled students and youth or adults wanting to further their education the non-traditional way.

6) Associates degrees are the new "high school diploma" as many will refer to a Bachelors as their first degree instead of the Associates.  A vast majority of people who want to be educated nowadays are going for a Masters as their final educational goal, for personal and professional reasons.  Some may even seek a doctorate.

[cardiacclep]

Interesting answers. Mostly agree with all the posts. I really hope the cost gets closer to cost especially with technology creating more mass dissemination....not that everything can be virtual (engineering, medical). I hope alt credit like Straighterline can catch on more main stream to at least defer cost for gen ed. And yes...associates programs really are the new HS diploma. At any rate, it is a really interesting market to follow.

[ss20ts]

Interesting answers. Mostly agree with all the posts. I really hope the cost gets closer to cost especially with technology creating more mass dissemination....not that everything can be virtual (engineering, medical). I hope alt credit like Straighterline can catch on more main stream to at least defer cost for gen ed. And yes...associates programs really are the new HS diploma. At any rate, it is a really interesting market to follow.

I don't think you'll see the cost of education come down. They have to pay for the campus, professors, technology, etc. The costs of all of those things increase every year.

[Xyxyfendz]

I opt for certificates. They'll become more important than degrees. Many of you will agree that it's not necessary to have a degree now to succeed in something, so it's easy to predict that this tendency will be observed in future.

[vetvso]

1. I see more schools removing Liberal Studies and Fine Arts.
2. Expansion of STEM degrees will start in high school and will become the focus at the university level.
3. Schools that cater to government employees will be the main schools supporting Liberal Arts, and Social Sciences degrees.
4. Trade school programs will be expanded at the local level with more expansion into Highschool.
5. Military Education will be expanded with even higher partnerships with certain schools.
6. I also think there will be a push for the Nationalization of State Universities.

[freeloader]

There are some really good thoughts in this thread, some I think are likely, some less so, but a couple of things that haven't been mentioned that I, personally think are very likely (2 good, I think; 1 bad):

1. Expansion of community college degree offerings. Community colleges are opening up more and more bachelor's programs (and at least one now has a master's program). I see no reason why this won't continue and accelerate. Community colleges, by their reliance on more adjuncts and with (typically) less investment in facilities, athletics, amenities, and research budgets can offer education much more cheaply than 4-year schools. Not that long ago, most states had 1 or 2 universities and a number of state colleges and teachers' colleges. In the last 50 years or so, many (most?) of these institutions have become universities with all that entails (facilities, athletics, amenities, research, etc). They have abdicated the space that they previously occupied as providers of cheap, accessible education. The community colleges have inherited that space. So long as community colleges do not decide, individually or collectively, to go the same route as the state colleges/teachers' colleges, they will only see their importance and reach grow.

2. Expansion of degree completion programs. I know the Big 3 have moved away from the old model of degree completion by requiring more classes at their schools, more specific types of classes, etc., but I think there will be a lot of pressure for degree completion programs, maybe like the West Virginia Regents' degrees. If it isn't already the case, the typical person in their 20s in coming years who didn't go the "traditional" college route, will likely have a hodge-podge of college credits--dual enrollment, AP, credits earned through programs provided by their employers, etc. As more and more "unused" credits pile up on peoples' transcripts, I suspect there will be both a desire amongst politicians and even universities to provide a mechanism for students to consolidate that learning into a degree.

3. I think degree creep -or- the cheapening of degrees will only intensify. People will want ever higher-level degrees to differentiate themselves AND, critically, colleges and universities will continue peddling more and more of those degrees as a mechanism to remain viable. Schools will innovate or die, it is true, but what does that innovation look like? Online and hybrid programs, absolutely. CBE, probably. Master's and doctoral degrees, 1000x yes! I had a friend who was pursuing an English PhD who joked that the standard master's degree for social sciences and humanities should be changed to an MS, not for master of science, but "manage store" since that's what most of the graduates eventually do. Perhaps in the not too distant future the greater at Walmart will need a PhD... people helper degree.

[Alpha]

financial problems
74% of colleges face financial challenges, according to survey of higher ed workers (cnbc.com)