03-15-2020, 07:28 PM
(03-15-2020, 01:39 PM)ARhead Wrote: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-...chart-data
Here is an inflation adjusted S&P500 chart going back 100 years. As you can see, it is in fact NOT always a good time to invest. Had you invested in 1929, you would not have made your money back until the mid-eighties, but by that time you'd probably have no need for money. If the chart went back further it would show the same would be true if you invested in about 1900. Same could be true for mid-sixties to late eighties (even the depth of 2009) and my conservative expectation is the US indices revert to 2000 levels. Most people believe that stocks and real estate only go up as they've rode bond yields from mid-teens to now about to be 0%, over the last 35 years. Bond yields and stock prices hold an inverse relationship to each other. By some metrics the US is still in the greatest stock bubble in history (Buffett is holding record cash by a country mile). The economy was already on shaky ground and with this virus issue, we are almost 100% going into recession. Central banks caused this bubble and they will try to paper over the problem again by bailing out institutions that should not be bailed out, but when people switch from greed to fear, cheap debt cannot coax them to speculate. Especially now when rates were already at historic lows.
I was heavily long index put options and vix through mid-february to now. but sold my vix way too early...
I would say that no one is suggesting you dump ALL of your money into the stock market on a single day - it's more about investing over the long haul, dollar-cost-averaging, that kind of thing.
You can't time it on the way up, or the way down. Just invest for the rest of your life.
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EXAMS: TECEP Tech Wrtg, Comp II, LA Math, PR, Computers DSST Computers, Pers Fin CLEP Mgmt, Mktg
COURSES: TESU Capstone Study.com Pers Fin, Microecon, Stats Ed4Credit Acct 2 PF Fin Mgmt ALEKS Int & Coll Alg Sophia Proj Mgmt The Institutes - Ins Ethics Kaplan PLA