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11-22-2022, 03:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2022, 03:38 PM by LevelUP.)
There's an old saying, "don't fight the fed."
People stuck in assets such as stocks and real estate may be in for a bloodbath as the fed seems determined to push the economy into a recession.
"Fed funds futures traders are presently anticipating that the key benchmark rate will peak somewhere between 4.75% and 5.5% next spring, according to the CME FedWatch Tool."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-st...1668683936
The markets are predicting another 50 basis point interest rate hike on December 14, 2022.
So with short-term CD now at 4.40% APY, is anyone buying these? What is your current rate?
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11-22-2022, 03:45 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2022, 03:45 PM by Flelm.)
I'm getting 3% in my savings. I'm not tying up my money for over a year for 1.4% extra.
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52-week Treasury bills are currently yielding 4.73%. Even 26-week T-bills are higher, at 4.67%. I'm a big, big fan of T-bills right now.
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Synchrony Bank has what is called a bump-up CD.
A bump-up CD allows you to bump up the rate once during your CD, so you don't miss out if the fed aggressively hikes rates.
The interesting thing will be trying to time investing so you can invest in a long-term 5 or 10 years in CD or bonds right when the interest rates peak out, which could be by the 2nd half of 2023.
I haven't done any trading of bonds in the past though I know once interest rates start to drop, there will be loads of people buying bonds above the issued price. The problem is the 10yr bond is only paying 3.7% now.
There are $30 trillion reasons why the rates won't go too high and stay there.
I suggest watching the fed funds futures, which does a good job of predicting rate hikes and cuts.
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If I were looking at US-govt-backed & 12-18 months, I'd probably go with an I-bond.
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